── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Denis Shapovalov 77% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Denis Shapovalov
Elias Ymer
77%23%
Hard: 84% / 16%
Clay: 73% / 27%
Grass: 49% / 51%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Denis Shapovalov
51th · average
Elias Ymer
4th · poor
Return
Denis Shapovalov
82th · strong
Elias Ymer
14th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#66
model rank
#168
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
CAN
country
SWE
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Denis Shapovalov■ Elias Ymer
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | Stockholm | Hard | QF | Denis Shapovalov | 6-4 6-7(3) 6-1 |