── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Casper Ruud 64% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Denis Shapovalov
Casper Ruud
36%64%
Hard: 61% / 39%
Clay: 11% / 89%
Grass: 57% / 43%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Denis Shapovalov
60th · average
Casper Ruud
92th · elite
Return
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#49
model rank
#23
Hard
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
CAN
country
NOR
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Denis Shapovalov■ Casper Ruud
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Clay0–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | Stockholm | Hard | SF | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Dallas | Hard | F | Denis Shapovalov | 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2022-05-09 | Rome Masters | Clay | QF | Casper Ruud | 7-6(7) 7-5 |
| 2021-05-17 | Geneva | Clay | F | Casper Ruud | 7-6(6) 6-4 |