── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 63% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Denis Shapovalov
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
37%63%
Hard: 50% / 50%
Clay: 31% / 69%
Grass: 19% / 81%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Denis Shapovalov
61th · average
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
78th · strong
Return
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
90th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#49
model rank
#22
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
CAN
country
ESP
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Denis Shapovalov■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Dallas | Hard | QF | Denis Shapovalov | 5-7 6-4 6-3 |
| 2025-02-24 | Acapulco | Hard | SF | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 7-6(3) 7-6(1) |
| 2022-03-07 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Denis Shapovalov | 4-6 6-4 6-2 |