── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Jannik Sinner 96% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Denis Shapovalov
Jannik Sinner
4%96%
Hard: 6% / 94%
Clay: 4% / 96%
Grass: 3% / 97%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Denis Shapovalov
60th · average
Jannik Sinner
100th · elite
Return
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Jannik Sinner
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#49
model rank
#1
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
CAN
country
ITA
185cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Denis Shapovalov■ Jannik Sinner
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–2
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Jannik Sinner | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Jannik Sinner | 5-7 6-4 6-3 6-3 |
| 2021-02-08 | Australian Open | Hard | R128 | Denis Shapovalov | 3-6 6-3 6-2 4-6 6-4 |