── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Denis Shapovalov 73% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Denis Shapovalov
Tristan Schoolkate
73%27%
Hard: 81% / 19%
Clay: 82% / 18%
Grass: 48% / 52%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Denis Shapovalov
51th · average
Tristan Schoolkate
33th · below avg
Return
Denis Shapovalov
82th · strong
Tristan Schoolkate
9th · poor

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#66
model rank
#154
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
CAN
country
AUS
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Denis ShapovalovTristan Schoolkate
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Hard10
── 1 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2025-07-14Los CabosHardQFDenis Shapovalov6-3 6-2