── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Rafael Jodar 72% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Denis Shapovalov
Rafael Jodar
28%72%
Hard: 50% / 50%
Clay: 13% / 87%
Grass: 54% / 46%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Denis Shapovalov
60th · average
Rafael Jodar
68th · average
Return
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Rafael Jodar
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#49
model rank
#7
Hard
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
—
CAN
country
ESP
185cm
height
—
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Denis Shapovalov■ Rafael Jodar
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Rafael Jodar | 7-5 4-6 7-5 |
| 2026-02-09 | Dallas | Hard | R32 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-1 6-2 |