── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Casper Ruud 64% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Casper Ruud
Denis Shapovalov
64%36%
Hard: 39% / 61%
Clay: 89% / 11%
Grass: 43% / 57%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Casper Ruud
92th · elite
Denis Shapovalov
60th · average
Return
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#23
model rank
#49
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
NOR
country
CAN
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Casper Ruud■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Clay2–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | Stockholm | Hard | SF | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Dallas | Hard | F | Denis Shapovalov | 7-6(5) 6-3 |
| 2022-05-09 | Rome Masters | Clay | QF | Casper Ruud | 7-6(7) 7-5 |
| 2021-05-17 | Geneva | Clay | F | Casper Ruud | 7-6(6) 6-4 |