── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Casper Ruud a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Casper Ruud
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
51%49%
Hard: 38% / 62%
Clay: 79% / 21%
Grass: 14% / 86%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Casper Ruud
92th · elite
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
78th · strong
Return
Casper Ruud
92th · elite
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
90th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#20
model rank
#22
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
NOR
country
ESP
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Casper Ruud■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay2–1
Hard2–2
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-1 |
| 2025-10-20 | Basel | Hard | QF | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 7-6(1) 0-0 RET |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Casper Ruud | 7-6(5) 1-6 6-3 4-6 6-3 |
| 2024-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(4) |
| 2021-05-31 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 7-6(3) 2-6 7-6(6) 0-6 7-5 |
| 2019-11-05 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Casper Ruud | 3-4(2) 4-3(2) 4-2 3-4(2) 4-1 |