── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 62% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Casper Ruud
Alex De Minaur
38%62%
Hard: 29% / 71%
Clay: 67% / 33%
Grass: 10% / 90%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Return
Casper Ruud
94th · elite
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#11
model rank
#8
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
NOR
country
AUS
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Casper Ruud■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–2
Clay1–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | United Cup | Hard | RR | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2024-02-26 | Acapulco | Hard | F | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2019-11-05 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Alex De Minaur | 4-1 4-0 4-2 |
| 2018-05-07 | Braga CH | Clay | SF | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-2 |