── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Casper Ruud 78% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Casper Ruud
Alexei Popyrin
78%22%
Hard: 71% / 29%
Clay: 83% / 17%
Grass: 41% / 59%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Alexei Popyrin
74th · strong
Return
Casper Ruud
94th · elite
Alexei Popyrin
32th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#11
model rank
#75
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
NOR
country
AUS
183cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Casper Ruud■ Alexei Popyrin
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay2–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Geneva | Clay | QF | Casper Ruud | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R16 | Alexei Popyrin | 6-4 3-6 7-5 |