── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Casper Ruud 81% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Casper Ruud
Holger Rune
81%19%
Hard: 68% / 32%
Clay: 60% / 40%
Grass: 25% / 75%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Casper Ruud
92th · elite
Holger Rune
79th · strong
Return
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#23
model rank
#127
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
NOR
country
DEN
183cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Casper Ruud■ Holger Rune
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay5–2
Hard1–0
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-14 | Barcelona | Clay | QF | Holger Rune | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2024-02-26 | Acapulco | Hard | SF | Casper Ruud | 3-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2023-05-29 | Roland Garros | Clay | QF | Casper Ruud | 6-1 6-2 3-6 6-3 |
| 2023-05-08 | Rome Masters | Clay | SF | Holger Rune | 6-7(2) 6-4 6-2 |
| 2022-05-23 | Roland Garros | Clay | QF | Casper Ruud | 6-1 4-6 7-6(2) 6-3 |
| 2022-04-11 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Casper Ruud | 7-6(5) 7-5 |
| 2021-07-12 | Bastad | Clay | R16 | Casper Ruud | 6-0 6-2 |
| 2021-04-12 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Casper Ruud | 6-2 6-1 |