── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Casper Ruud 92% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Casper Ruud
Shintaro Mochizuki
92%8%
Hard: 86% / 14%
Clay: 96% / 4%
Grass: 24% / 76%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Shintaro Mochizuki
0th · poor
Return
Casper Ruud
94th · elite
Shintaro Mochizuki
78th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#11
model rank
#174
Clay
best surface
Grass
Right
hand
Right
NOR
country
JPN
183cm
height
175cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Casper Ruud■ Shintaro Mochizuki
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-24 | Tokyo | Hard | R32 | Casper Ruud | 4-6 6-1 6-1 |