── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Casper Ruud 65% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Casper Ruud
Raphael Collignon
65%35%
Hard: 57% / 43%
Clay: 76% / 24%
Grass: 37% / 63%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Casper Ruud
92th · elite
Raphael Collignon
74th · strong
Return
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Raphael Collignon
50th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#23
model rank
#55
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
NOR
country
BEL
183cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Casper Ruud■ Raphael Collignon
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard0–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Geneva | Clay | R16 | Casper Ruud | 7-6(2) 6-2 |
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R64 | Raphael Collignon | 6-4 3-6 3-6 6-4 7-5 |