── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Denis Shapovalov 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Alex Molcan
Denis Shapovalov
43%57%
Hard: 20% / 80%
Clay: 64% / 36%
Grass: 60% / 40%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Alex Molcan
35th · below avg
Denis Shapovalov
60th · average
Return
Alex Molcan
75th · strong
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#69
model rank
#49
Clay
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Left
SVK
country
CAN
178cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

■ Alex Molcan■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Clay1–0
Hard0–1
── 2 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2026-04-13MunichClayQFAlex Molcan6-4 6-4
2022-02-14DohaHardR16Denis Shapovalov6-4 6-0