── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Felix Auger Aliassime 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Felix Auger Aliassime
Alexander Bublik
61%39%
Hard: 67% / 33%
Clay: 57% / 43%
Grass: 35% / 65%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Felix Auger Aliassime
95th · elite
Alexander Bublik
88th · strong
Return
Felix Auger Aliassime
81th · strong
Alexander Bublik
51th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#9
model rank
#24
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
CAN
country
KAZ
193cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Felix Auger Aliassime■ Alexander Bublik
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard5–1
Clay0–1
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Rotterdam | Hard | SF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | SF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 7-6(3) 6-4 |
| 2025-02-24 | Dubai | Hard | R32 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 7-6(7) 6-7(4) 6-3 |
| 2024-01-29 | Montpellier | Hard | SF | Alexander Bublik | 4-6 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-10-24 | Basel | Hard | QF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2020-09-21 | Hamburg | Clay | R16 | Alexander Bublik | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2019-10-07 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R64 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 7-6(5) 4-0 RET |