── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Felix Auger Aliassime 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Felix Auger Aliassime
Andrey Rublev
59%41%
Hard: 66% / 34%
Clay: 38% / 62%
Grass: 44% / 56%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Felix Auger Aliassime
95th · elite
Andrey Rublev
84th · strong
Return
Felix Auger Aliassime
81th · strong
Andrey Rublev
88th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#9
model rank
#19
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CAN
country
RUS
193cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Felix Auger Aliassime■ Andrey Rublev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–4
Clay0–3
── 9 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 7-5 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-05-18 | Hamburg | Clay | SF | Andrey Rublev | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2025-02-17 | Doha | Hard | SF | Andrey Rublev | 7-5 4-6 7-6(5) |
| 2024-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | F | Andrey Rublev | 4-6 7-5 7-5 |
| 2024-02-12 | Rotterdam | Hard | R16 | Andrey Rublev | 3-6 7-6(6) 7-5 |
| 2022-02-14 | Marseille | Hard | F | Andrey Rublev | 7-5 7-6(4) |
| 2022-02-07 | Rotterdam | Hard | SF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-7(5) 6-4 6-2 |
| 2020-01-13 | Adelaide | Hard | SF | Andrey Rublev | 7-6(5) 6-7(7) 6-4 |
| 2018-07-16 | Umag | Clay | R16 | Andrey Rublev | 6-4 6-7(4) 6-3 |