── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Felix Auger Aliassime a slight 51% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Felix Auger Aliassime
Frances Tiafoe
51%50%
Hard: 51% / 49%
Clay: 58% / 42%
Grass: 53% / 47%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Felix Auger Aliassime
95th · elite
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Return
Felix Auger Aliassime
76th · strong
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#11
model rank
#12
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
CAN
country
USA
193cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Felix Auger Aliassime■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
Grass0–1
Clay1–0
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R16 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2026-06-19 | Halle | Grass | QF | Frances Tiafoe | 3-6 6-3 7-6(12) |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | QF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2022-04-18 | Barcelona | Clay | R16 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2021-08-30 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 4-6 6-2 7-6(6) 6-4 |