── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Felix Auger Aliassime 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Felix Auger Aliassime
Casper Ruud
61%39%
Hard: 70% / 30%
Clay: 26% / 74%
Grass: 81% / 19%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Felix Auger Aliassime
95th · elite
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Return
Felix Auger Aliassime
81th · strong
Casper Ruud
94th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#9
model rank
#11
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CAN
country
NOR
193cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Felix Auger Aliassime■ Casper Ruud
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay4–2
Hard2–2
── 10 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R16 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 7-5 2-2 RET |
| 2024-08-12 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-3 6-1 |
| 2024-07-29 | Paris Olympics | Clay | QF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-4 6-7(8) 6-3 |
| 2024-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-4 7-5 |
| 2022-11-14 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Casper Ruud | 7-6(4) 6-4 |
| 2022-08-08 | Canada Masters | Hard | QF | Casper Ruud | 6-1 6-2 |
| 2021-05-03 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Casper Ruud | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2019-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R128 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 3-6 6-1 6-2 |
| 2018-04-23 | Francavilla Al Mare CH | Clay | R16 | Casper Ruud | 7-5 6-0 |
| 2017-06-12 | Lyon CH | Clay | QF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-4 6-7(4) 6-4 |