── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Felix Auger Aliassime 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Felix Auger Aliassime
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
57%43%
Hard: 57% / 43%
Clay: 59% / 41%
Grass: 54% / 46%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Felix Auger Aliassime
95th · elite
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
78th · strong
Return
Felix Auger Aliassime
76th · strong
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
90th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#11
model rank
#22
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
CAN
country
ESP
193cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Felix Auger Aliassime■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
Hard2–1
Clay2–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Wimbledon | Grass | R16 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-1 |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-7(7) 6-7(5) 6-4 6-1 6-3 |
| 2023-02-20 | Doha | Hard | QF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-4 7-6(5) |
| 2022-05-09 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 4-6 7-6(2) 6-2 |
| 2022-01-17 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 7-6(4) 6-7(4) 7-6(5) 7-6(4) |
| 2018-04-02 | Alicante CH | Clay | R32 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 7-5 7-5 |