── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur a slight 52% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Felix Auger Aliassime
Alex De Minaur
49%52%
Hard: 48% / 52%
Clay: 42% / 58%
Grass: 33% / 67%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Felix Auger Aliassime
95th · elite
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Return
Felix Auger Aliassime
81th · strong
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#9
model rank
#8
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
CAN
country
AUS
193cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Felix Auger Aliassime■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–1
Clay0–2
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Rotterdam | Hard | F | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2025-08-25 | Us Open | Hard | QF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 4-6 7-6(7) 7-5 7-6(4) |
| 2024-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-7(2) 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-11-27 | Davis Cup Finals F: CAN vs AUS | Hard | RR | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022-08-15 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2018-05-07 | Braga CH | Clay | QF | Alex De Minaur | 3-6 6-1 6-2 |
| 2017-03-13 | Drummondville CH | Hard | QF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 7-5 6-3 |