── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Felix Auger Aliassime 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Felix Auger Aliassime
Lorenzo Musetti
57%43%
Hard: 59% / 41%
Clay: 33% / 67%
Grass: 47% / 53%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Felix Auger Aliassime
95th · elite
Lorenzo Musetti
77th · strong
Return
Felix Auger Aliassime
81th · strong
Lorenzo Musetti
92th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#9
model rank
#12
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CAN
country
ITA
193cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Felix Auger Aliassime■ Lorenzo Musetti
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–1
Clay1–3
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R16 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2025-03-19 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Lorenzo Musetti | 4-6 6-2 6-3 |
| 2024-07-29 | Paris Olympics | Clay | BR | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-4 1-6 6-3 |
| 2022-11-26 | Davis Cup Finals SF: ITA vs CAN | Hard | RR | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022-10-10 | Florence | Hard | SF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2022-04-11 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-2 7-6(2) |
| 2021-05-17 | Lyon | Clay | R32 | Lorenzo Musetti | 7-6(3) 3-6 7-5 |
| 2021-04-19 | Barcelona | Clay | R32 | Felix Auger Aliassime | 4-6 6-3 6-0 |