── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 79% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Felix Auger Aliassime
Carlos Alcaraz
21%79%
Hard: 21% / 79%
Clay: 13% / 87%
Grass: 14% / 86%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Felix Auger Aliassime
95th · elite
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Return
Felix Auger Aliassime
76th · strong
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#11
model rank
#2
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
CAN
country
ESP
193cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Felix Auger Aliassime■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–3
Clay0–2
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2024-07-29 | Paris Olympics | Clay | SF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-1 6-1 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 6-3 6-1 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | QF | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-10-24 | Basel | Hard | SF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2022-09-16 | Davis Cup Finals RR: ESP vs CAN | Hard | RR | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-7(3) 6-4 6-2 |
| 2021-08-30 | Us Open | Hard | QF | Felix Auger Aliassime | 6-3 3-1 RET |