── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Ugo Humbert
Holger Rune
39%61%
Hard: 46% / 54%
Clay: 15% / 85%
Grass: 52% / 48%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Ugo Humbert
86th · strong
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Return
Ugo Humbert
63th · average
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#39
model rank
#20
Hard
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
FRA
country
DEN
188cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Ugo Humbert■ Holger Rune
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–5
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-13 | Stockholm | Hard | SF | Ugo Humbert | 4-6 2-2 RET |
| 2025-10-01 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 5-7 6-4 7-5 |
| 2023-01-16 | Australian Open | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 6-4 6-2 7-6(5) |
| 2022-10-24 | Basel | Hard | R16 | Holger Rune | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2022-03-07 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R128 | Holger Rune | 6-3 6-2 |