── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 71% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Daniil Medvedev
29%71%
Hard: 25% / 75%
Clay: 37% / 63%
Grass: 24% / 76%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
58th · average
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Return
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
90th · elite
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#33
model rank
#5
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
RUS
183cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina■ Daniil Medvedev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–5
Clay0–1
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2025-09-25 | Beijing | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-4 1-6 6-2 |
| 2024-02-26 | Dubai | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2023-03-06 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2023-02-13 | Rotterdam | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 4-6 6-2 6-2 |
| 2021-05-03 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 4-6 6-4 6-2 |