── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 62% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Matteo Berrettini
62%38%
Hard: 64% / 36%
Clay: 40% / 60%
Grass: 32% / 68%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
77th · strong
Matteo Berrettini
94th · elite
Return
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
92th · elite
Matteo Berrettini
35th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#21
model rank
#40
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ITA
183cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina■ Matteo Berrettini
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard0–2
Clay1–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | Tokyo | Hard | R32 | Matteo Berrettini | 1-6 7-6(1) 6-4 |
| 2022-08-29 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Matteo Berrettini | 3-6 7-6(2) 6-3 4-6 6-2 |
| 2021-04-12 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 7-5 6-3 |