── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 64% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Denis Shapovalov
64%36%
Hard: 51% / 49%
Clay: 69% / 31%
Grass: 81% / 19%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
77th · strong
Denis Shapovalov
60th · average
Return
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
92th · elite
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#21
model rank
#49
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ESP
country
CAN
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–2
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | Dallas | Hard | QF | Denis Shapovalov | 5-7 6-4 6-3 |
| 2025-02-24 | Acapulco | Hard | SF | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 7-6(3) 7-6(1) |
| 2022-03-07 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Denis Shapovalov | 4-6 6-4 6-2 |