── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alejandro Davidovich Fokina a slight 50% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Casper Ruud
50%50%
Hard: 63% / 37%
Clay: 21% / 79%
Grass: 85% / 15%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
77th · strong
Casper Ruud
92th · elite
Return
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
92th · elite
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#21
model rank
#23
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
NOR
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina■ Casper Ruud
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–2
Hard2–2
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-1 |
| 2025-10-20 | Basel | Hard | QF | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 7-6(1) 0-0 RET |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Casper Ruud | 7-6(5) 1-6 6-3 4-6 6-3 |
| 2024-03-18 | Miami Masters | Hard | R32 | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(4) |
| 2021-05-31 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 7-6(3) 2-6 7-6(6) 0-6 7-5 |
| 2019-11-05 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Casper Ruud | 3-4(2) 4-3(2) 4-2 3-4(2) 4-1 |