── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 74% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Matteo Arnaldi
74%26%
Hard: 78% / 22%
Clay: 39% / 61%
Grass: 91% / 9%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
77th · strong
Matteo Arnaldi
30th · below avg
Return
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
92th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#21
model rank
#84
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R64 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-02-10 | Delray Beach | Hard | SF | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-02-03 | Dallas | Hard | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-1 6-3 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Matteo Arnaldi | 4-6 7-6(5) 3-0 RET |