── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Novak Djokovic 71% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Novak Djokovic
29%71%
Hard: 29% / 71%
Clay: 28% / 72%
Grass: 14% / 86%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Novak Djokovic
99th · elite
Return
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Novak Djokovic
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#3
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
SRB
183cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Novak Djokovic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass0–2
Clay0–1
Hard1–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | R16 | Novak Djokovic | 1-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | QF | Novak Djokovic | W/O |
| 2024-04-08 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | QF | Novak Djokovic | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2024-01-01 | United Cup | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-01-16 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Novak Djokovic | 6-2 6-1 6-2 |