── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 90% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Roberto Carballes Baena
90%10%
Hard: 89% / 11%
Clay: 83% / 17%
Grass: 94% / 6%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Roberto Carballes Baena
22th · below avg
Return
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Roberto Carballes Baena
58th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#147
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
ESP
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Roberto Carballes Baena
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
Hard1–0
Clay2–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-30 | Wimbledon | Grass | R128 | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 6-2 7-6(2) |
| 2024-10-14 | Antwerp | Hard | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 2-6 6-4 6-2 |
| 2024-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R64 | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2018-04-02 | Alicante CH | Clay | SF | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 6-4 |