── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 56% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Daniil Medvedev
44%56%
Hard: 42% / 58%
Clay: 52% / 48%
Grass: 54% / 46%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Daniil Medvedev
78th · strong
Return
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Daniil Medvedev
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#5
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
RUS
183cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Daniil Medvedev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–8
Clay2–0
── 12 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-01 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-11-11 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2024-05-27 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 4-6 6-2 6-1 6-3 |
| 2023-09-27 | Beijing | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(3) 6-3 |
| 2023-08-28 | Us Open | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 2-6 6-4 6-1 6-2 |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(7) 7-5 |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 2-6 7-5 |
| 2022-01-03 | Atp Cup | Hard | RR | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2020-11-02 | Paris Masters | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 5-7 6-2 6-2 |
| 2018-08-20 | Winston-Salem | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2018-01-08 | Sydney | Hard | F | Daniil Medvedev | 1-6 6-4 7-5 |