── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 89% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Mackenzie Mcdonald
89%11%
Hard: 84% / 16%
Clay: 96% / 4%
Grass: 85% / 15%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Mackenzie Mcdonald
22th · below avg
Return
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Mackenzie Mcdonald
42th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#159
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
USA
183cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Mackenzie Mcdonald
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R128 | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 6-2 6-3 |
| 2022-02-07 | Rotterdam | Hard | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(6) 1-6 6-4 |
| 2018-09-24 | Shenzhen | Hard | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 1-6 7-6(1) 6-0 |
| 2017-03-13 | Drummondville CH | Hard | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-1 |