── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 60% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Karen Khachanov
60%40%
Hard: 63% / 37%
Clay: 58% / 42%
Grass: 62% / 38%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Karen Khachanov
90th · elite
Return
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Karen Khachanov
81th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#26
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
RUS
183cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Karen Khachanov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–2
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-10-21 | Vienna | Hard | SF | Karen Khachanov | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2022-02-21 | Dubai | Hard | R32 | Karen Khachanov | 6-3 6-7(1) 7-5 |
| 2020-08-31 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 0-6 4-6 6-3 6-1 |