── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 69% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Cameron Norrie
69%31%
Hard: 69% / 31%
Clay: 60% / 40%
Grass: 75% / 25%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Cameron Norrie
66th · average
Return
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Cameron Norrie
77th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#38
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Left
AUS
country
GBR
183cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Cameron Norrie
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–4
Clay2–0
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Cameron Norrie | 5-7 7-6(5) 6-1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(5) 2-6 6-2 |
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Cameron Norrie | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024-01-01 | United Cup | Hard | RR | Cameron Norrie | 6-4 2-6 7-6(2) |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | R64 | Alex De Minaur | 7-5 6-4 |
| 2023-01-02 | United Cup | Hard | RR | Cameron Norrie | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2022-04-18 | Barcelona | Clay | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 5-7 6-1 |