── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 62% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Alexander Bublik
62%38%
Hard: 68% / 32%
Clay: 64% / 36%
Grass: 53% / 47%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Alexander Bublik
88th · strong
Return
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Alexander Bublik
51th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#24
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
KAZ
183cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Alexander Bublik
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–1
Clay1–1
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-1 6-1 |
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | QF | Alexander Bublik | 6-7(5) 6-4 7-5 |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R64 | Alexander Bublik | 2-6 2-6 6-4 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 7-5 6-0 |
| 2021-04-19 | Barcelona | Clay | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(3) 6-2 |
| 2021-01-05 | Antalya | Hard | F | Alex De Minaur | 2-0 RET |