── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 81% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Reilly Opelka
81%19%
Hard: 77% / 23%
Clay: 86% / 14%
Grass: 86% / 14%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Reilly Opelka
97th · elite
Return
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Reilly Opelka
0th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#100
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
USA
183cm
height
211cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Reilly Opelka
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–1
Grass1–0
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Reilly Opelka | 7-6(6) 6-4 |
| 2022-06-13 | Queen's Club | Grass | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2019-10-21 | Basel | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(2) 6-7(4) 7-6(3) |
| 2019-08-12 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(3) 6-4 |
| 2019-07-22 | Atlanta | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(4) 6-7(5) 6-3 |
| 2019-01-07 | Sydney | Hard | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 7-6(5) |