── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Andrey Rublev
61%39%
Hard: 65% / 35%
Clay: 43% / 57%
Grass: 70% / 30%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Andrey Rublev
88th · strong
Return
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Andrey Rublev
80th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#28
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
RUS
183cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Andrey Rublev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard5–3
Clay0–1
── 9 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Beijing | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 1-6 6-2 6-3 |
| 2025-02-17 | Doha | Hard | QF | Andrey Rublev | 6-1 3-6 7-6(8) |
| 2024-02-12 | Rotterdam | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(5) 4-6 6-3 |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Andrey Rublev | 6-4 6-7(5) 6-7(4) 6-3 6-0 |
| 2023-10-30 | Paris Masters | Hard | QF | Andrey Rublev | 4-6 6-3 6-1 |
| 2023-02-13 | Rotterdam | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-04-11 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R32 | Andrey Rublev | 2-6 6-1 6-4 |
| 2018-11-05 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Alex De Minaur | 4-1 3-4(5) 4-1 4-2 |
| 2018-07-30 | Washington | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 5-7 7-6(6) 6-4 |