── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 66% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Frances Tiafoe
66%34%
Hard: 69% / 31%
Clay: 65% / 35%
Grass: 75% / 25%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Return
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#31
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
USA
183cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard5–1
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 6-4 7-5 |
| 2025-07-27 | Canada Masters | Hard | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 4-6 6-4 |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | R16 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2019-11-05 | NextGen Finals | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 4-2 4-1 0-4 4-2 |
| 2018-08-27 | US Open | Hard | R64 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-0 5-7 6-2 |
| 2017-01-02 | Brisbane | Hard | Q2 | Alex De Minaur | 6-7(4) 6-4 6-4 |