── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 69% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Matteo Berrettini
69%31%
Hard: 73% / 27%
Clay: 57% / 43%
Grass: 43% / 57%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Matteo Berrettini
94th · elite
Return
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Matteo Berrettini
35th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#40
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
ITA
183cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Matteo Berrettini
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–1
Grass0–2
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | Vienna | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-1 7-6(4) |
| 2025-03-19 | Miami Masters | Hard | R16 | Matteo Berrettini | 6-3 7-6(7) |
| 2023-07-03 | Wimbledon | Grass | R64 | Matteo Berrettini | 6-3 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-01-03 | Atp Cup | Hard | RR | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 7-6(4) |
| 2021-06-14 | Queen's Club | Grass | SF | Matteo Berrettini | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2017-07-31 | Segovia CH | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(4) 7-5 |