── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Hubert Hurkacz
57%43%
Hard: 63% / 37%
Clay: 57% / 43%
Grass: 55% / 45%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Hubert Hurkacz
96th · elite
Return
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Hubert Hurkacz
58th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#20
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
POL
183cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Hubert Hurkacz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–0
Clay0–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | Beijing | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 3-2 RET |
| 2026-01-05 | United Cup | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 4-6 6-4 |
| 2025-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-0 |
| 2019-05-06 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Hubert Hurkacz | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2018-07-23 | Atlanta | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 1-6 7-6(0) 7-6(5) |