── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 81% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Lorenzo Sonego
81%19%
Hard: 78% / 22%
Clay: 86% / 14%
Grass: 71% / 29%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Lorenzo Sonego
69th · average
Return
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Lorenzo Sonego
40th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#87
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
ITA
183cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Lorenzo Sonego
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Grass2–0
Hard1–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2022-06-20 | Eastbourne | Grass | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(3) 6-2 |
| 2021-06-21 | Eastbourne | Grass | F | Alex De Minaur | 4-6 6-4 7-6(5) |
| 2020-11-02 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 7-5 |