── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 78% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Denis Shapovalov
78%22%
Hard: 69% / 31%
Clay: 82% / 18%
Grass: 85% / 15%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Denis Shapovalov
51th · average
Return
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Denis Shapovalov
82th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#66
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
AUS
country
CAN
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard4–0
Grass0–1
── 6 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 7-6(3) |
| 2022-10-17 | Stockholm | Hard | QF | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 7-6(4) |
| 2022-08-08 | Canada Masters | Hard | R64 | Alex De Minaur | 7-5 7-6(4) |
| 2020-01-06 | Atp Cup | Hard | RR | Alex De Minaur | 6-7(6) 6-4 6-2 |
| 2019-11-21 | Davis Cup Finals QF: AUS vs CAN | Hard | RR | Alex De Minaur | 3-6 6-3 7-5 |
| 2017-06-05 | Surbiton CH | Grass | Q3 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-4 3-6 6-3 |