── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 62% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Casper Ruud
62%38%
Hard: 71% / 29%
Clay: 33% / 67%
Grass: 90% / 10%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Return
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Casper Ruud
94th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#11
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
NOR
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Casper Ruud
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
Clay0–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-05 | United Cup | Hard | RR | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-3 |
| 2024-02-26 | Acapulco | Hard | F | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2019-11-05 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Alex De Minaur | 4-1 4-0 4-2 |
| 2018-05-07 | Braga CH | Clay | SF | Casper Ruud | 6-3 6-2 |