── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
58%42%
Hard: 61% / 39%
Clay: 66% / 34%
Grass: 62% / 38%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
78th · strong
Return
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
90th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#22
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
ESP
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–2
Hard3–0
Grass0–1
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Hamburg | Clay | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 4-6 6-4 |
| 2025-07-21 | Washington | Hard | F | Alex De Minaur | 5-7 6-1 7-6(3) |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | SF | Alex De Minaur | 6-1 6-3 |
| 2022-06-13 | Queen's Club | Grass | R16 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 4-6 6-4 7-5 |
| 2021-04-12 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-4 7-6(3) |
| 2019-11-05 | NextGen Finals | Hard | RR | Alex De Minaur | 4-2 3-4(5) 4-1 4-1 |
| 2018-05-14 | Lisbon CH | Clay | R32 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 7-6(5) 6-4 |