── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Sebastian Korda
57%43%
Hard: 59% / 41%
Clay: 72% / 28%
Grass: 64% / 36%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Sebastian Korda
90th · elite
Return
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Sebastian Korda
92th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#16
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
USA
183cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Sebastian Korda
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
Grass1–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Alex De Minaur | 4-6 6-4 6-4 |
| 2024-06-10 | s Hertogenbosch | Grass | F | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2024-02-12 | Rotterdam | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 4-6 6-4 |
| 2021-06-28 | Wimbledon | Grass | R128 | Sebastian Korda | 6-3 6-4 6-7(5) 7-6(5) |