── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Lorenzo Musetti
58%42%
Hard: 61% / 39%
Clay: 40% / 60%
Grass: 65% / 35%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Lorenzo Musetti
77th · strong
Return
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Lorenzo Musetti
92th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#12
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Lorenzo Musetti
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Clay0–2
Grass0–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Lorenzo Musetti | 7-5 3-6 7-5 |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R16 | Lorenzo Musetti | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2025-04-07 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | SF | Lorenzo Musetti | 1-6 6-4 7-6(4) |
| 2024-06-17 | Queen's Club | Grass | R32 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1-6 6-4 6-2 |
| 2022-01-17 | Australian Open | Hard | R128 | Alex De Minaur | 3-6 6-3 6-0 6-3 |