── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 75% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Matteo Arnaldi
75%25%
Hard: 86% / 14%
Clay: 56% / 44%
Grass: 93% / 7%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Matteo Arnaldi
27th · below avg
Return
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#54
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
ITA
183cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–1
Hard1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R64 | Matteo Arnaldi | 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2024-01-15 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Alex De Minaur | 6-3 6-0 6-3 |