── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 80% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex De Minaur
Gabriel Diallo
80%20%
Hard: 80% / 20%
Clay: 84% / 16%
Grass: 75% / 25%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Gabriel Diallo
66th · average
Return
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Gabriel Diallo
35th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#94
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
CAN
183cm
height
203cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex De Minaur■ Gabriel Diallo
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Grass1–0
Hard2–0
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Queen's Club | Grass | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(8) 6-3 |
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(8) 4-6 6-3 |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 6-4 7-5 |