── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Alex De Minaur 69% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Alex De Minaur
Luciano Darderi
69%31%
Hard: 92% / 8%
Clay: 48% / 52%
Grass: 90% / 10%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Luciano Darderi
62th · average
Return
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Luciano Darderi
74th · strong

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#8
model rank
#37
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
AUS
country
ITA
183cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Alex De MinaurLuciano Darderi
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Clay10
── 1 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2026-05-17HamburgClayQFAlex De Minaur6-0 6-3