── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pavel Kotov 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Pavel Kotov
Bernard Tomic
61%39%
Hard: 69% / 31%
Clay: 70% / 30%
Grass: 26% / 74%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Pavel Kotov
38th · below avg
Bernard Tomic
11th · poor
Return
Pavel Kotov
6th · poor
Bernard Tomic
4th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#140
model rank
#173
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
AUS
191cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Pavel Kotov■ Bernard Tomic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Guangzhou Huangpu International Tennis Open CH | Hard | SF | Pavel Kotov | 7-6(3) 7-6(3) |